Market Update: Rates Inch Higher; Big Inflation Data Coming Up This Week

Blog posted On November 13, 2023

Mortgage rates inched slightly higher last week, which is to be expected after the large downward swing we saw a couple of weeks ago. This week could shake things up with the consumer price index (CPI) inflation data from October.

Inflation levels have been cooling for the past few months. Lower inflation levels are good for rates in the current market and typically lead to a downward or even trend in rates. But if inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could have the reverse effect on rates. Another big report coming out this week is retail sales. This is one report that can gauge the economy’s strength. The higher the sales, the potentially worse for rates. The current expectation for October is a monthly decline of 0.1%. Anything higher could create potential for rate volatility. 

Also coming up this week, we have the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market sentiment index. Any reading above 50 is considered positive, but last month’s reading sat at 40. Rounding out the week is the report on housing starts and building permits for October. Though building permits saw a previous monthly decline, housing starts have been going strong and jumped 7% month-over-month in September.

If all the reports go as planned, this week should be relatively calm. But there is a notable potential for volatility if the reports don’t align with expectations.

As always, let us know if you have any questions.